Isn't it time for a retracement?

Michael B

Member
I know praying the market will go your way is not a good strategy, but can't lose that hope. What do you think? Are these divergences or I'm biased to see them like that? I'm talking about MACD histogram which is slowly decaying while the ETF is climbing. What I care about are in fact RUT and SPX, but don't have data for them in this software. The corresponding ETFs are close enough though.
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Marcas

Member
What do you think?
Well...
Yes, you see first class divergence on those graphs. Does it mean that we are heading down from here? - No,
Do such divergences proceed market downturns? Sometimes.
Can you trade based on this divergence? Yes, you can.

If you are asking what will market do --> nobody knows.
If you are askink for popular opinion --> here is my piece:
I'm sitting on short deltas, I'm fine with it, and don't want to flip. At the same time I'm ready for continuation of bull run (for whatever reason). Ready in a sense that I won't loose money.
 

status1

Member
I am not much of a chartist I tried them in the past but I did not find them reliable I read somewhere that it works better with commodities or maybe it used to work in the past but I doubt it works with SPX these days with high frequency program traders

As long as the market is trading in your favor take advantage of it just be ready when the market turns
I would say after new years there may be some profit taking or it could be just a tweet about the trade deal not making it and that would spark a sell off much more than whatever you see on a chart

I am sitting on positive delta and positive theta and I am fine with it I just don't like the low vix because I have to get closer to ATM to get the same profit level so I am adding a few DTE's to my trade rather than coming in closer to ATM
 
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