Some practical advice re Coronavirus

Marcas

Member
I posted this in Slack, but I suppose not may read Slack, so, I repost it here.
This is text a friend forwarded to me. I expect it is well known by now for many of you.

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-From member of the Stanford hospital board.
This is their feedback for now on Corona virus:
The new Coronavirus may not show sign of infection for many days. How can one know if he is infected?
By the time they have fever and/or cough and go to the hospital, the lung is usually 50% Fibrosis and
it's too late.

Taiwan experts provide a simple self-check that we can do every morning. Take a deep breath and hold your breath for more than 10 seconds.
If you complete it successfully without coughing, without discomfort, stiffness or tightness, etc., it proves there is no Fibrosis in the lungs, basically indicates no infection.
In critical time, please, self-check every morning in an environment with clean air.

Serious excellent advice by Japanese doctors treating COVID-19 cases:
Everyone should ensure your mouth & throat are moist, never dry. Take a few sips of water every 15 minutes at least.

Why?
Even if the virus gets into your mouth, drinking water or other liquids will wash them down through your throat and into the stomach. Once there, your stomach acid will kill all the virus. If you don't drink enough water more regularly, the virus can enter your windpipe and into the lungs. That's very dangerous.

Please send and share this with family and friends.
Take care everyone and may the world recover from this Coronavirus soon.

IMPORTANT Facts - CORONAVIRUS
1. If you have a runny nose and sputum, you have a common cold
2. Coronavirus pneumonia is a dry cough with no runny nose.
3. This new virus is not heat-resistant and will be killed by a temperature of just 26/27 degrees. It hates the Sun.
4. If someone sneezes with it, it takes about 10 feet before it drops to the ground and is no longer airborne.
5. If it drops on a metal surface it will live for at least 12 hours
- so if you come into contact with any metal surface - wash your hands as soon as you can with a bacterial soap.
6. On fabric it can survive for 6-12 hours. normal laundry detergent will kill it.
7. Drinking warm water is effective for all viruses. Try not to drink liquids with ice.
8. Wash your hands frequently as the virus can only live on your hands for 5-10 minutes, but - a lot can happen during that time - you can rub your eyes, pick your nose unwittingly and so on.
9. You should also gargle as a prevention. A simple solution of salt in warm water will suffice.
10. Can't emphasis enough - drink plenty of water!

THE SYMPTOMS
1. It will first infect the throat, so you'll have a sore throat lasting 3/4 days
2. The virus then blends into a nasal fluid that enters the trachea and then the lungs, causing pneumonia. This takes about 5/6 days further.
3. With the pneumonia comes high fever and difficulty in breathing.
4. The nasal congestion is not like the normal kind. You feel like you're drowning.
It's imperative you then seek immediate attention

```

Not everyone in contact with the virus will get sick. Not everyone who gets sick will go through serious stage.
Take care of your immune system. Burgers, couch and lot of TV wont do.
 

Donald

New member
Hi Marcas

It turns out it is a fake list......as in:


A list of coronavirus tips claiming to be from Stanford is being shared widely online, despite the fact that suggestions could put people at risk.

It includes a host of tips that suggest people can avoid catching Covid-19 with useless behaviour, and suggests ways of checking whether they already have it that would not work.

Nonetheless, it has been shared perhaps hundreds of thousands of times, sweeping across the internet as people look for ways to protect themselves from the disease.

The list begins with a message indicating that it has come from a member of the Stanford Hospital board. That part of the message seems to be entirely false.

“A widely distributed email about COVID-19 that is attributed to a ‘Stanford Hospital board member’ contains inaccurate information," a Stanford Health spokesperson told The Verge. "It did not come from Stanford Medicine.”
 

Tb2018

New member
Be very careful with this kind of information ,because can cost people's life!
I know is done with the best intention ,but sometimes is better to avoid to advice others on fields
we are not qualified.
Ps :this should apply also to trading and more ........but we'll discuss this when the virus is the past!
 

Marcas

Member
You are tight getns. Most likely it is fake board member who sent this.

Yet, there is no info there that jeopardize people's life. Contrary, it can improve lives even if not true in strict scientific sense.
Problem is that there is no reliable info about COVID-19. What are the symptoms? What is incubation period? How exactly virus propagates? What can be done on individual level to prevent/treat virus? At what point medical assistance is recommended, etc.
Drinking water even if wont affect virus directly will benefit your organism. Will it produce false sense of security? Maybe, but it wont be as bad as 'security' produced by temperature readings in public gatherings. I only rises levels of anxiety. Drinking water may bring you calm that is much needed.

To my knowledge there is fear mongering going on big time. Maybe I'm wrong, maybe there is something very bad about this one that I do not know. So far I see plenty of bogus statistics.

I was told how speed limits were introduced in US. I feel the same is happening now, just on bigger scale. Virus is just a carrier of changes (or serves as cover up/distraction).
Again, I may be completely wrong. Maybe there is a legitimate reason for all what's going around, or maybe this is typical reaction to challenge we face. I'd like to see unbiased facts, not half-truths.
 

Donald

New member
You are tight getns. Most likely it is fake board member who sent this.

Yet, there is no info there that jeopardize people's life. Contrary, it can improve lives even if not true in strict scientific sense.
Problem is that there is no reliable info about COVID-19. What are the symptoms? What is incubation period? How exactly virus propagates? What can be done on individual level to prevent/treat virus? At what point medical assistance is recommended, etc.
Drinking water even if wont affect virus directly will benefit your organism. Will it produce false sense of security? Maybe, but it wont be as bad as 'security' produced by temperature readings in public gatherings. I only rises levels of anxiety. Drinking water may bring you calm that is much needed.

To my knowledge there is fear mongering going on big time. Maybe I'm wrong, maybe there is something very bad about this one that I do not know. So far I see plenty of bogus statistics.

I was told how speed limits were introduced in US. I feel the same is happening now, just on bigger scale. Virus is just a carrier of changes (or serves as cover up/distraction).
Again, I may be completely wrong. Maybe there is a legitimate reason for all what's going around, or maybe this is typical reaction to challenge we face. I'd like to see unbiased facts, not half-truths.
Hi Marcas

No worries, as they say down here in Australia/New Zealand :)

This has clear references and links and is updated regularly: https://informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/covid-19-coronavirus-infographic-datapack/

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ has lots of useful information too.

Cheers, Donald
 

Marcas

Member
Just one more link re this Whuan virus.

This is pretty good and easy to understand summary of what other sites analyzing available real data say.
In this presentation one high risk group is missing - AIDS. I read that those communities are about to be hit hard in some counties. If true, numbers of deaths can/will be much, much higher.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=HANzkzkOFmk

Really, no need to fall in hysteria I observe here and there. Just prepare yourself and protect those around you who are at higher risk.
I also see signals that presentations of this kind started being banned for public - so far single, isolated cases about VitC being good prevention.

Now, if you need smth to fear, I'd suggest to take a deeper look at financial markets (if you, by a slim chance, didn't do so by now).
My fear is off the scale and will gladly read any calming words.

(Exaggerating fear level a bit, but not seriousness of situation.)
 

Donald

New member
Hi Marcas....some calming words for you :) ...watch the first 20 seconds of this from an experienced doctor:


There are some interesting points made on this channel...(Search "Do You WANT To Be On A Ventilator?" on YouTube if the embedded link does not work).

A lot of medical people subscribe to this channel, as the presenter did 10 years as a hospitalist at Stanford...so he's done the front lines. As a medical person he can be a bit too direct, like a lot of medical people can be, so be aware of that while viewing.
 

Marcas

Member
Donald, this is whole different issue from what I was talking about.

I strongly disagree with his point of view, especially with some particular statements he made.

Beside, I was asking for calming words re world economy, not inducing fear I can end up in hands of this man one day :)

That said, there is possibility that what came from China holds more for us that data say and that overreaction we see has some basis in reality. Why doesn't it, this valid reason for mass panic,show up in any data set?

I'm touching strictly medical side. What virus can do to you in reality vs what you are told or implied.
There are traces to be found leading to scenarios that makes sense for everything what happens but the reasons are way beyond medical and I don't want start this path.

So, if you can say everything will be fine with economy/civilization as we know, I'm all ears :)
 

Marcas

Member
So, the first link is... blah-blah-blah. A lot of words to say nothing, just paper space fill.
Second link - I like a lot. Thanks. I think I have this book forgotten somewhere on the shelves, not sure. I will try to dig it up.

Still, not much to address my fears. Maybe it is better this way - at least it's not getting any worse. If I worry alone there is possibility that I'm paranoiac and don't see reality how it is. Yeah, we may have a bounce one day...
;-)
 

AndrewS

Member
This is the best guide I've found so far: https://arstechnica.com/science/202...ensive-ars-technica-guide-to-the-coronavirus/
The article circulating is clearly bogus. COVID-19 kills with pulmonary pneumonia not fibrosis. The air sacs fill with fluid preventing air from reaching them and interfering with the intake of O2 and removal of CO2 from the blood. It's a form of drowning and why ventilators are so important since they force air into the "wet" lungs. The latest data points to an average incubation time of 5 days but it can be as long as 14. The numbers are still relatively small and thus subject to the rules of small sample size but here in the US the death rate seems to be running between 0.5 and 1.5% of confirmed cases. Confirmed cases by definition can only come from people tested and thus are likely only a subset of people with the virus. If we could include all those people then the death rate would almost surely be even lower. That can change quickly but for now is at least a small sign that we may not go the way of Italy and other countries with a higher death rate.
 

Marcas

Member
Thanks AndrewS.

take a look at this:

Other sources confirm data manipulation/misunderstanding.

It does not mean of course you can act carelessly now on, but your mind can function in more calm way (if it was stunned by wave of terrifying news delivered to your eyes).
There are still forces out there pushing hard panic mode. Some mindlessly, some with a purpose (imo).
 

AndrewS

Member
The true way to assess the danger of this virus to to measure excess deaths. Are more people dying than normal? The problem is that number must be taken over a period of time to be valid and thus not helpful in making decisions now. Someone dying today of COVID-19 who would have died next month of heart failure is not the same as a death in someone with a life expectancy of years or decades. I think the Precautionary Principle is wise and that we over rather than under react to unknown threats until more valid information is available.
 

Marcas

Member
I think the Precautionary Principle is wise and that we over rather than under react to unknown threats until more valid information is available.

With this attitude you must be a decent trader .

By no means I recommend negligence or under reaction especially if one is in high risk group. I question size of reaction to what we know as per today. One does not take chemotherapy if he sneezes once, one does not buy 100 /ES to protect 10 negative delta with limited risk. That is, of course, unless he is in panic.

Take a look at this recent article at the New England Jour. of Medicine by Mr Fauci and others.

www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387?query=featured_secondary

He wrote: “On the basis of a case definition requiring a diagnosis of pneumonia, the currently reported case fatality rate is approximately 2%.4 In another article in the Journal, Guan et al.5 report mortality of 1.4% among 1099 patients with laboratory-confirmed Covid-19”

What it means is that among people who were positively diagnosed with Covid-19 and developed pneumonia mortality rate is 1.4 to 2%. Real mortality should be (we can’t be sure) much lower since people with virus who did not get pneumonia are not included in this calculation, nor people who do have virus but weren’t tested.

As other data seems to oscillate around the same numbers I question real reason to close down major world economies. I suspect that something else must be going either on medical or political levels.

I wont post links illustrating unprecedented power grab that is taking place all over the world. It goes very smoothly only because there is panic among people. Maybe just one quote, quite horrifying:

“Northwestern Memorial Hospital in Chicago has been discussing a universal do-not-resuscitate policy for infected patients, regardless of the wishes of the patient or their family members”

Quote is from Washington Post article reporting this as universal trend (for US), not a single case. Leaving moral aspect aside look at it from perspective of a person who pays health insurance and somebody else decides if he gets needed help or not. This is going on for some time in many places (NHS in Britain is a standing out example). I see it as trial balloon for US – if there is no common outcry this will be implemented and next point on the list is introduced. With panic all things are possible.


So, no, don’t ignore virus, apply precautionary measures but don’t let panic to blind you. That is my point.


BTW. I’ve seen Dr Fauci as member of fear spreader party (maybe he does know something I don’t). This article shows different. Maybe he realized where panic mode leads and is backing off or maybe he simply reacts to backslash from science community – either way in article he applied, maybe not final but real data available for the day. Data, imo, that do not justify wide spread panic even if individual stories are so tragic.
 

AndrewS

Member
I have not seen a specific answer but it seems that the number you see in the news of "cases" is cumulative and includes those who have already recovered. A more useful statistic would be active cases if the number is cumulative since cumulative cases will never go down.
 

Marcas

Member
AnderwS, numbers used in media are very misleading. One problem is what you pointed out. Other is the way data are collected. For example if you are victim of car accident your body is tested for corona (this is Italy but testing cadavers was also noted in US). Eventually with all paperwork any death with positive test ends up being corona case. Also other issues. I suppose the bigger the number the scarier it looks the better it sells. Though saturation of hospital beds can be real. Spreading panic wont help in this case neither.

From the paper above: "the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively." Those are words of Mr. Fauci. I hope he start acting on them.

Do you think, just take an honest guess, above numbers will be used in media reporting anytime soon?
 
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