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Hi all! It is a tool I use in my butterfly trading. I map standard Options pricing across all expirations and overlay a vol surface model to come up with my own options pricing model. This tells me if a structure like a butterfly with shorts around the money is advantageous at any given...

Coming soon

There was a massive move in the Dollar, Gold and Bonds Today as if there was mass liquidation. This has historically been a sign of a crash coming very soon. It is just 2 days at this point but I thought I would share. This is the exact setup we had going into OCT 2008 and Feb 2001. The...

Do you have a link to that vid?

Thanks, both of you. I am working on it now thanks.

Does anyone have an App Script for pulling Options data from a site like Yahoo finance?

I love Tower. Great people and do a fantastic job.

What a short squeeze today!

In general spending from governments increases inflation. It is what it is. by by Yen.

I use it in nontaxable accounts. Assuming a full tax load of 35% you can just take that off the average return... ~54%, 54*.65=35.1% Net return after taxes. If I was using it in a taxable I would use futures or options on the indexes to reduce the tax load. 1256 contracts for the win. Also, you...

I am getting a lot of emails from clients and friends about the excitement of a fed pivot. The data is not pointing to that being a bullish thing for equities. So far we have had mass selling of bonds that have helped prop up the blue chips. When bond yields do slow down it will attract more...

Yes, when it does happen, we will enter the depths of the collapse stage. That is typically when the selling accelerates for equities after a brief pause. That is about 2/3 of the way to the bottom on average. Right now we are about 1/2 way through the cycle. This was the easier half. As for...

In tightening credit markets each parameter that makes up the weighted forecast model will have larger fluctuations. This is when forecasting can get hairy. Stocks are primarily driven by GDP but the higher the leverage in the system the more susceptible they are to tightening monetary policy...

Oh, the secret will make 1000% in 3 days guaranteed!

Yup, already did, now I'm shifting back to equities today. We have some positive headwinds that are now coming in for the next 2 quarters. Looks like the crash is going to be after q4. I will find another time of over excitement on the bull side to slide out of equities again. There is only so...

I love it! Everyone needs a system that works for them. I personally use my adaptive macro portfolios. I don't like the large/long drawdowns of recessions. I let the quantitative data run the show and manage the system from a higher level. As for the capital gains... One method is to leverage...

What you are asking is very DEEP. I'll write about it in the weekly article and talk about it in the next SWP QA. In short, though, the initial stimulus wasn't enough in 2008 and the economic behavior of risk-off was more entrenched. At the same time business accounting switch to mark to mark...

This is what the news will tell us. What The truth is that is very correct when the growth is stong and the bond market is in a health contango. When we get an inversion all of that goes off the table. This is because credit spreads get squeezed. Lending dries up and money supply causes...

Shorter-term (2-4 weeks) models are pushing more bullish as of this writing. Medium-term (3-6 months) got pushed very bearish now. Strong jobs pushes the Fed even further into a corner. Their mandate is for 2% inflation and full employment. Right now we have 9% inflation and the lowest...