Jim Olson 0DTE Iron Butterfly

tom

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Administrator
I spoke to an Aeromir member yesterday who is trading the Jim Olson 0DTE Iron Butterfly. I hadn't heard of it but apparently it's been around for quite a while

Here's an article about it ( from https://0dte.com/jim-olson-iron-butterfly-0dte-trade-plan )

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Iron Butterfly involves selling the ATM call and put and buying wings.

Sell the Open in the first 1 minute. The official open price for SPX is almost never accurate because all 500 stocks don’t immediately have bid at open. I wait 10 – 15 seconds after open to see where SPX is trading. This is the price I use to determine the strike I’m going to sell. I never try to guess direction with the Iron Fly. If SPX is trading at 3102.50, I would do $3100 or $3105. I would never do further out and try to guess the direction of the market. I don’t care what indicators you use. Price action is all that matters and will always win. By selling the open the most premium decay will happen in the first 30 minutes regardless of the IV environment.

SPX options start trading at 3 AM Eastern. They stop from 9:15 to 9:30. At 9 AM I start looking at the options to see where we are trading at. I look at what the Implied Move for the day is. I look at see what type of credit I can get. If the Implied Move is under $30, I will simply use $50 wings. If the Implied Move is over $30 you will need to increase the wing size so you can get out of the trade faster. The more money you pay for the wings the longer you will stay in the trade. Never look at the options from 9:15 to 9:30 because the option prices will be messed up.

Example on June 15th 2020

The ATM $2980 Call and Put was ~ $45.50 at the open.

$50 Wings $2930/2980/3030 the credit is $33.80. So the Wings cost you $11.70

$60 Wings $2920/2980/3040 the credit is $37.15. So the Wings cost you $8.35

$70 Wings $2910/2980/3050 the credit is $39.70. So the Wings cost you $5.80

$80 Wings $2900/2980/3060 the credit is $41.25. So the Wings cost you $4.25

$90 Wings $2890/2980/3070 the credit is $42.55. So the Wings cost you $2.95

$100 Wings $2880/2980/3080 the credit is $43.50. So the Wings cost you $2.00

My general guideline is to keep increasing the wing size by $10 until you stop receiving at least a $1.00 extra credit. So in the example above I would you $80 wings. In my opinion it isn’t worth it to go $10 wider from $90 wings to $100 wings to collect $.95.

I am currently using TOS to trade so I’ll walk through a trade. I open the Trade tab and type in SPX. I pull up the 0-DTE option chain. I changed the Spread to Single. Now you can simply hold down the ctrl key and select the strikes you would like. You select the bid side to sell the strike and select the ask side to buy the strike. If you like to use the App turn the Spread to Custom to easily select the strikes you want.

Example from June 21, 2020

At 9:30:30 SPX was trading at $3150.47. So lets sell the $3150 call and put and buy the $3200 call and $3100 put. The mid price is showing a $20.85. I would leave it at the mid price and confirm and send the order. If you don’t get filled in the first minute lower the price by $.10 and send the order again. I usually wait 1 minute before changing the order again. Lets assume we got filled at the $20.85. I always use a limit order to get in and I never lag in. Please note the Break Even Stock Prices (3129.75 / 3170.85) are the prices I use for my stop loss.

Profit Target is $1.50. So $20.85 – $1.50 = $19.35. So I would set my buy order for $19.35.

My stop loss criteria simply the break even stock price. After I get filled I will draw a price line on my chart with $3129.15 and $3170.85. With TOS you can also set a conditional order based on SPX price.

So lets walk through placing a OCO trade. One order will be a buy order to take profit, the other order will be a order to take you out if SPX crosses $3129.15 or $3170.85.

First make a limit order to buy back at $19.35 Then select advanced order and change to OCO.

Click on the first order and select create duplicate order. Change this order to market. Then select the gear icon.

This will open a new screen where you can enter conditions. Put the Symbol to SPX, Method Mark, Trigger >= $3170.85

You can enter another one for SPX with the opposite for $3129.15 Enter Save and then you are ready to confirm and send the order.

Double check on the Order Confirmation page with the conditions to make sure they are right.

How to determine if you can hold of more of a profit. First, I would recommend taking ½ off at the $1.50 target. Look at the current chart with a 30 min candle setting. Compare what the range of the first 30 minutes is. If the range is $10 and you received a $20.85 credit this will increase the rate the ATM options are decaying. If I hold for more profit, I still like to be out by 11 AM Eastern. There is a lack of decay with this strategy from 12pm to 3pm Eastern.

If I get stopped out, I usually enter another Iron Fly near the area I was stopped out. I still keep my $1.50 profit target. The second Iron Fly is simply to help reduce my loss for the day.

Don’t get Greedy!! Remember Base Hits win baseball games. The same is true for portfolio over the long run.

Tips

#1 Don’t watch the P/L while in the trade. It is very jumpy the first 15 minutes.

#2 Don’t use TOS to paper trade it. It will give you bullshit fills that you would never get in real life. Instead I recommend just watching the mid price of the trade. To get out you need to see the mid price go past $.15 to $.20 your exit price. This way it is more realistic unlike TOS paper.

#3 Ondemand feature is horrible for this strategy.

#4 Always have the profit order out and sitting. Market changes are very fast.

#5 The wider the wings the better. See my comments above on how I usually increase my wings with the increase in Implied Move.

#6 If you are getting tested near your stop point I will often change my exit to a smaller profit target or even the credit received.

#7 Never ever lag out of this trade. I promise you that you will probably just make it worse.

#8 After 1 hour in the trade if you are underwater, I would consider changing my exit order. If you didn’t hit profit in the first hour your odds are no longer in your favor.

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Personally I would just trade straight call or put butterflies. You can close it synthetically with the opposite type without any pattern day trader restrictions. I don't see any advantage of using an iron fly. The iron fly involves four contracts but the straight call or put butterfly only needs three contracts so you'll pay a bit more commissions for the Iron Butterfly.

Is anyone trading this 0DTE butterfly? I know some trade 0DTE iron condors (Serg). There are pros and cons to either trade of course. Butterflies have much higher Theta and can exit relatively quickly but Iron Condors are typically much wider and have less risk.
 
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There is a backtest for 0DTE flies similar to Jim Olson (optionomega does not allow variable wing size, so I just use 5 delta for longs)
1663761248854.png

This (and other premium-selling 0DTE strategies) performs well in 2022 and not so well in 2021. Higher volatility (higher premium) seems to be a requirement for these trades
 
Thanks for that backtest Serg! I wrote to the OptionOmega support and asked if they could give us a presentation on the Round Table and a group discount (I always ask presenters for that :) ) How long have you been using OptionOmega? It seems like the tool that QuantyCarlo was trying to be.
 
Thanks for that backtest Serg! I wrote to the OptionOmega support and asked if they could give us a presentation on the Round Table and a group discount (I always ask presenters for that :) ) How long have you been using OptionOmega? It seems like the tool that QuantyCarlo was trying to be.
I am not using it long yet, just couple weeks. It has what I was missing in other automatic backtesting tools - 0DTE options. So now I can validate some strategies I was looking for. I still could backtest them in ONE, but ONE does not offer automatic testing and could be very slow, so I was not able to validate multiple variations quickly.
 
Sounds interesting
Not sure if Jim is showing his own trades or is that someone else's trades or maybe he changed the strategy but the logs are showing Iron condors not iron fly's

I just placed a simulated trade using jim's strategy According to the strategy using today's SPX prices I would have to place the longs 130 points away from ATM so the credit is 63.45 with 13K margin Using a put fly you would have to pay 66.50 with no margin (the fly price is a little off because it was not placed at the same time ) The strikes I used was 4010/3880/3750 and was placed around 10:30 this morning and it is currently up a little over $100 but it has been a tight trading range so far After the fed announcement it may go haywire and should be closed before that

I have not seen Jim's strategy logs on that website all I saw was iron condors but maybe I just did not find it
It would be interesting if someone could do a back test on this strategy but I am not sure if you can enter the time placed in the back test
 
Sounds interesting
Not sure if Jim is showing his own trades or is that someone else's trades or maybe he changed the strategy but the logs are showing Iron condors not iron fly's

I just placed a simulated trade using jim's strategy According to the strategy using today's SPX prices I would have to place the longs 130 points away from ATM so the credit is 63.45 with 13K margin Using a put fly you would have to pay 66.50 with no margin (the fly price is a little off because it was not placed at the same time ) The strikes I used was 4010/3880/3750 and was placed around 10:30 this morning and it is currently up a little over $100 but it has been a tight trading range so far After the fed announcement it may go haywire and should be closed before that

I have not seen Jim's strategy logs on that website all I saw was iron condors but maybe I just did not find it
It would be interesting if someone could do a back test on this strategy but I am not sure if you can enter the time placed in the back test
Today seems is not a good day for this strategy. Even there is not much movement, the slow theta decay and IV increase does not allow to show much gain, and I am sure they will hold premium till 2pm.
 
Today seems is not a good day for this strategy. Even there is not much movement, the slow theta decay and IV increase does not allow to show much gain, and I am sure they will hold premium till 2pm.
Looks like you are right about the theta decay That $100 gain from this morning has disappeared so it's holding right around the entry level and that's with 5900 Theta and 3 hours to the end of the trading day
 
I traded the JOIF for a couple of years. Worked pretty good starting out but then the opening markets moved so fast, got whipped too many times. I spoke with Jim, this is just an extra strategy he does but this was NOT his bread and butter trade, just an extra that sometimes made it and sometimes did not. The goal is to grab $100-150/ctc and run.

I changed it to the lunch time trade: I would put on the Iron Fly right at lunch…. Very little movement in price but good decay. Get out before traders return from lunch! About a 2 hour window.

Trade can turn south quickly.
 
I spoke to an Aeromir member yesterday who is trading the Jim Olson 0DTE Iron Butterfly. I hadn't heard of it but apparently it's been around for quite a while

Here's an article about it ( from https://0dte.com/jim-olson-iron-butterfly-0dte-trade-plan.html )

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Iron Butterfly involves selling the ATM call and put and buying wings.

Sell the Open in the first 1 minute. The official open price for SPX is almost never accurate because all 500 stocks don’t immediately have bid at open. I wait 10 – 15 seconds after open to see where SPX is trading. This is the price I use to determine the strike I’m going to sell. I never try to guess direction with the Iron Fly. If SPX is trading at 3102.50, I would do $3100 or $3105. I would never do further out and try to guess the direction of the market. I don’t care what indicators you use. Price action is all that matters and will always win. By selling the open the most premium decay will happen in the first 30 minutes regardless of the IV environment.

SPX options start trading at 3 AM Eastern. They stop from 9:15 to 9:30. At 9 AM I start looking at the options to see where we are trading at. I look at what the Implied Move for the day is. I look at see what type of credit I can get. If the Implied Move is under $30, I will simply use $50 wings. If the Implied Move is over $30 you will need to increase the wing size so you can get out of the trade faster. The more money you pay for the wings the longer you will stay in the trade. Never look at the options from 9:15 to 9:30 because the option prices will be messed up.

Example on June 15th 2020

The ATM $2980 Call and Put was ~ $45.50 at the open.

$50 Wings $2930/2980/3030 the credit is $33.80. So the Wings cost you $11.70

$60 Wings $2920/2980/3040 the credit is $37.15. So the Wings cost you $8.35

$70 Wings $2910/2980/3050 the credit is $39.70. So the Wings cost you $5.80

$80 Wings $2900/2980/3060 the credit is $41.25. So the Wings cost you $4.25

$90 Wings $2890/2980/3070 the credit is $42.55. So the Wings cost you $2.95

$100 Wings $2880/2980/3080 the credit is $43.50. So the Wings cost you $2.00

My general guideline is to keep increasing the wing size by $10 until you stop receiving at least a $1.00 extra credit. So in the example above I would you $80 wings. In my opinion it isn’t worth it to go $10 wider from $90 wings to $100 wings to collect $.95.

I am currently using TOS to trade so I’ll walk through a trade. I open the Trade tab and type in SPX. I pull up the 0-DTE option chain. I changed the Spread to Single. Now you can simply hold down the ctrl key and select the strikes you would like. You select the bid side to sell the strike and select the ask side to buy the strike. If you like to use the App turn the Spread to Custom to easily select the strikes you want.

Example from June 21, 2020

At 9:30:30 SPX was trading at $3150.47. So lets sell the $3150 call and put and buy the $3200 call and $3100 put. The mid price is showing a $20.85. I would leave it at the mid price and confirm and send the order. If you don’t get filled in the first minute lower the price by $.10 and send the order again. I usually wait 1 minute before changing the order again. Lets assume we got filled at the $20.85. I always use a limit order to get in and I never lag in. Please note the Break Even Stock Prices (3129.75 / 3170.85) are the prices I use for my stop loss.

Profit Target is $1.50. So $20.85 – $1.50 = $19.35. So I would set my buy order for $19.35.

My stop loss criteria simply the break even stock price. After I get filled I will draw a price line on my chart with $3129.15 and $3170.85. With TOS you can also set a conditional order based on SPX price.

So lets walk through placing a OCO trade. One order will be a buy order to take profit, the other order will be a order to take you out if SPX crosses $3129.15 or $3170.85.

First make a limit order to buy back at $19.35 Then select advanced order and change to OCO.

Click on the first order and select create duplicate order. Change this order to market. Then select the gear icon.

This will open a new screen where you can enter conditions. Put the Symbol to SPX, Method Mark, Trigger >= $3170.85

You can enter another one for SPX with the opposite for $3129.15 Enter Save and then you are ready to confirm and send the order.

Double check on the Order Confirmation page with the conditions to make sure they are right.

How to determine if you can hold of more of a profit. First, I would recommend taking ½ off at the $1.50 target. Look at the current chart with a 30 min candle setting. Compare what the range of the first 30 minutes is. If the range is $10 and you received a $20.85 credit this will increase the rate the ATM options are decaying. If I hold for more profit, I still like to be out by 11 AM Eastern. There is a lack of decay with this strategy from 12pm to 3pm Eastern.

If I get stopped out, I usually enter another Iron Fly near the area I was stopped out. I still keep my $1.50 profit target. The second Iron Fly is simply to help reduce my loss for the day.

Don’t get Greedy!! Remember Base Hits win baseball games. The same is true for portfolio over the long run.

Tips

#1 Don’t watch the P/L while in the trade. It is very jumpy the first 15 minutes.

#2 Don’t use TOS to paper trade it. It will give you bullshit fills that you would never get in real life. Instead I recommend just watching the mid price of the trade. To get out you need to see the mid price go past $.15 to $.20 your exit price. This way it is more realistic unlike TOS paper.

#3 Ondemand feature is horrible for this strategy.

#4 Always have the profit order out and sitting. Market changes are very fast.

#5 The wider the wings the better. See my comments above on how I usually increase my wings with the increase in Implied Move.

#6 If you are getting tested near your stop point I will often change my exit to a smaller profit target or even the credit received.

#7 Never ever lag out of this trade. I promise you that you will probably just make it worse.

#8 After 1 hour in the trade if you are underwater, I would consider changing my exit order. If you didn’t hit profit in the first hour your odds are no longer in your favor.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Personally I would just trade straight call or put butterflies. You can close it synthetically with the opposite type without any pattern day trader restrictions. I don't see any advantage of using an iron fly. The iron fly involves four contracts but the straight call or put butterfly only needs three contracts so you'll pay a bit more commissions for the Iron Butterfly.

Is anyone trading this 0DTE butterfly? I know some trade 0DTE iron condors (Serg). There are pros and cons to either trade of course. Butterflies have much higher Theta and can exit relatively quickly but Iron Condors are typically much wider and have less risk.
I think it is Jim Olsen. Just checked and he is still a member of the Facebook group, just doesn't participate anymore.

Jim Olson was a participant in at least one of the Facebook groups that started out as being Tastytrade centric. He started sharing this trade idea, and for a while posted his trade on pretty much a daily basis, including trading guidelines and tweaks he was making to it. He stopped participating as he got tired of being hounded and criticized etc. by various group members for various reasons. I am not even sure if he is a member of the group anymore.

Ultimately, the group essentially transformed into being almost solely about 0 and 1 DTE trades. Jim Olson was the originator of this transformation. Several individuals, David Sun, Tammy Chambliss and April (Something) among a couple of others sort of took over a lot of the posting and transformed it even further. David Sun ultimately left the group and formed a Discord Channel where he posts his trades and I think it is now a paid service of some kind.

I am still a member of the groups, but they offer much less value than they used to.
 
After the Fed the theta started to decay but now SPX moved down
The trade was down about -$500 after that big spike down but it did not reach the breakeven at 3816 now that it is starting to go back up and with the rapid decay it was up $140 when I started writing and even higher at about $300 so the trade should have been able to be closed with $150 gain for the day
Let's see if it changes after the speech
 
Trade can turn south quickly.
Absolutely, but it can also bounce
So this trade went from -$500 after the announcement to +$3000 after the speech to now back down below the breakeven to -$2600
I think it has some potential
Either grab a quick $100-$150 or manage it with some risk reversals the only problem is the pattern day trader rule
I will keep experimenting with this to see if it works any better outside the Fed or maybe with stocks

I also simulated a straddle trade and placed it just before the fed at 3875 and it made $800 on the first leg down Of course on the bounce it would have been a big loss but with the following leg down and now expired it would have seen an $1800 profit

I have to find a way to manage them Definitely don't want to just leave the trade unattended
 
One way to get around the PDT rule is to open the trade with a PUT (or CALL) only butterfly. The close the trade with the a CALL fly (or PUT if you started with a Call fly). These are two simulations in TOS of the identical fly as a call fly or a put fly:

1663824741064.png

Suppose you were filled with a CALL fly for a $32.00.

Put an OCO order in to close the trade if you hit a profit target... say $2 or $34.00 and a stop at something like $27 with PUT flies. No PDT problems then. This works very well with cash settled instruments like SPX.

1663824997624.png

This is the risk chart with a long and short fly at the same strikes. $0 risk and should be $0 margin. Just let it expire and everything cancels itself out.
 
That would work it just going to require some margin

It would be more interesting if it could be managed without actually closing the trade
 
I did another simulated trade with 1 DTE and it also works Of course SPX is in a tight range at the moment
I placed the trade around 10:30 and it's up a little over $500 The 0 DTE is up a little over $1200 in comparison using the same strikes
Let's see how this one is going to finish
 
I am not using it long yet, just couple weeks. It has what I was missing in other automatic backtesting tools - 0DTE options. So now I can validate some strategies I was looking for. I still could backtest them in ONE, but ONE does not offer automatic testing and could be very slow, so I was not able to validate multiple variations quickly.
There are several automatic backtesting tools out there which offer intraday data. What did you miss where?

With OptionOmega I observed some unrealistic results. When I activated the setting "Require Two Consecutive Hits at Profit Target", same for loss, the results were more believable, but still to good to be true. I saw no selectable setting for bid or ask or mid price, which should also be considered. Don't know what data they use and whether they have been revised or not. Boths has it's advantages and disadvantages.

I think it's very important to question that and more, and not blindly trust the results.
 
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My limited observations on "unrealistic results" for backtesting were traced back to use of MID for "realistic" pricing. (MID alone, is not reliable determination of realistic price in some cases) The case M12 mentions, of consecutive hits resolved the most common issue. For that case both the bid and the ask would be replaced with a lower bid and a higher ask (non-symmetrical), which would return to more realistic pricing 60 seconds later. If one was able to add a "personal liquidity" criteria, such as ((ASK-BID)/MID)<"sanity threshold" else assume no trade this sample, the results may be more realistic. -- or ignore sample where the BID dropped and the ASK increased (for the next sample) for a dirty implementation.
 
I reconnected with David Sun last night. He has done extensive work in the 0 DTE area. I had forgotten, but he created a site www.thetradebusters.com where he has laid out much of it. He suggests listening to episode 48 of his podcast as a starting point, I just listened to it, he provides an overview of www.thetradebusters.com and its content and his recommended path to understanding his approach.
 
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I reconnected with David Sun last night. He has done extensive work in the 0 DTE area. I had forgotten, but he created a site www.thetradebusters.com where he has laid out much of it. He suggests listening to episode 48 of his podcast as a starting point, I just listened to it, he provides an overview of www.thetradebusters.com and its content and his recommended path to understanding his approach.
Looks like he does not do the sshort term DTE SPX any more
 
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