AndrewS definitely has the right idea in terms of picking a strategy that you can live with and sticking to it until proven wrong. However, I would suggest that the game is not simple. If it were I would be hobnobbing with Bill Gates and Warren Buffet instead of trudging along in the trenches with other retail traders trying to make a buck...and I have been doing this for 23 years. And, I would pose this question (which I saw on a cartoon picture in my best friend's Dad's office when I was 10 years old) to self-styled mathematical gurus, "expert" chart readers, market timers, tea leaf readers, and TV "gurus": If you're so damn smart, why ain't you rich?