Sheridan Mentoring $4k on 20K monthly

H

HowardS

New member
Hi All,

I hope everyone is enjoying the fourth of July! It has been quite a long time since I have checked in on the sheridan Mentoring site. (I think its prior to Tom setting this site up to be honest!) But for no reason (I think I was wondering if d Sheridan was still in business to be honest.) I took a peek at his site today. And lo and behold Dan never fails to, well I'll say surprise, since this is a family website! I saw that Dan is now offering a new class, starting July 11th "A plan on how to make $4k Monthly on 20K"

Lets be honest for a moment who can possibly turn down that offer. (Although, I do wonder, is it scalable? can you use that plan to do $10K on $50K monthly? Or, lets say you really went all in on this plan, can you do $100K on $500K monthly?) I know I'm getting a little bit ahead of myself here, but at 20% per month how far away can freedom really be? Of course 20% a month is equal to 240% a year, and that is without compounding!

I must admit, the thought has occurred to me, does Dan make 20% a month? How many of the now thousands of sheridan students now having graduated his classes make 20% a month?

I hope everyone enjoys the holiday. I will be looking at islands to purchase with my 20% a month!
 
It's like the email I got last week from OptionVue:
"After a lot of productive experimentation, my friend, Peter Schultz, has found a way to make $1,000 dollars in profit almost every Friday--and risk just $1,500 to do it.
Some quick math tells us that's a 67% return--and as good as that is, it's not the best part.
The best part is this method gives you an automatic 82% to 92% probability of winning the moment you place the trade!"

How can you slog through all of the claims without wasting time and money trying to test them?? I know backtesting is one way, but that's a lot of time and it doesn't necessarily replace the live test and the potential for poor risk management and losing trades. Just crazy how much junk is on the "education" market, but I haven't ever really chased too many of them. This site and the training here is about as far as I've gone...
 
Luke said:
How can you slog through all of the claims without wasting time and money trying to test them??
Click to expand...

The best way to handle it is the "Delete" button. No need to waste time. Impossible to go through so many unsubstantiated claims.

The so-call educators prey on trader's in-built desire to find the "holy grail". Traders are just too curious to find out if there is another trade that is better than what they are trading. If the marketing messages continue, sooner or later, they'll succumb to the thought .... "hmm... if that thing works, it'll pay back the cost with just one single trade. What's the risk of trying?" There goes another $1,000. The cycle repeats every 6 to 12 months :)
 
A bit of a tangent, but I've been wondering this for a while - is Dan Sheridan the brother of Scott Sheridan, who was/is Tom Sosnoff's co-founder of ToS, etc.? Dan and Scott look nothing alike, but it would explain some things. Also, all three of these guys are always all smiles - but the more I learn about them, the more it becomes clear they each seem to have an agenda. I mean, I've read many times that Dan doesn't trade, and Tom is well-known for refusing to release any sort of audited track record of his performance.

Posted by Ice101781
 
A bit more of a tangent... Looking too closely at how the sausage is made can curb one's appetite.
Further down the rabbit hole: I had a colleague once who was very bright and recommended engineering solutions at a mind-numbing pace. Some of his ideas were good. The effort required to filter out the crap exceeded my perceived value, so I ceased paying any attention, which turned out to be an optimal solution for me. -- Some people still listened!
 
HowardS said:
I saw that Dan is now offering a new class, starting July 11th "A plan on how to make $4k Monthly on 20K"
Click to expand...

The title is a bit off. What Dan really means is a trade plan for short term weeklies. If you follow his breakdown, nothing is extra ordinary as long as you recognize the risks. His plan is to set aside 20k for three 15 - 20 day SPX trades, 50% for ATM butterfly, 25% for calendar & 25% IC. Target 5% P/L per trade. Most trades will be closed after 3 or 4 days but must be closed after 1wk. Repeat every week. 5% per wk per trade works out to be 20% per month, 4K out of 20K. This will be your goal but the real results will be different. Is this possible to achieve? Yes. I back-tested this for the past 4 months using the butterfly trade and the average return was 6%/week which is actually about 5K out of 20K per month. However, the trading range for the SPX has been narrow during the period. It is also possible to have 2 or more consecutive losses. Will I trade this way in real life? NO! I do not like the risk. You can lose all the 20K if the market condition suddenly changes. Besides I am not a short term weekly options trader. I want to be away from the screen most of the day. Every trader is different. You chose your risk & comfort level.
 
Jack has a good point with doing shorter time frame butterflies. Using my automated back tester I found the following results doing an unbalanced butterfly ATM with 40/50 wings put on at 14DTE and taken off at 7DTE. There are 261 trades from the beginning of 2011 to June 23, 2017 using every 14DTE available.

14DTE Butterfly.JPG

There are no adjustments. The results are pretty good but there are several times with multiple losers in a row.
 
Luke said:
It's like the email I got last week from OptionVue:
Click to expand...

OptionVue sells their list to whoever will pay them. I got tired of these types of scam emails and unsubscribed. That's better than the delete key as those emails all stop being sent to you.
 
Anton Kreil makes interesting comments about retail brokers. Perhaps if we look at the broker agreements there might be something interesting in terms of incentives. He does make some interesting comments about educators.

 
Paul Demers said:
Using my automated back tester...
Click to expand...

AUTOMATED BACK TESTER? Please tell me more. Did you build this tool or how can I get access to this? I spent all weekend (about 15 hours total) testing a weekly rule based trade and that is time I'd much rather spend with my family!

More complex trades are good to watch and learn with OV, but some of them is definitely like to screen first with a tool like this.

UPDATE FROM TOM: CMLViz Trademachine is a great backtesting tool
 
tom said:
OptionVue sells their list to whoever will pay them. I got tired of these types of scam emails and unsubscribed. That's better than the delete key as those emails all stop being sent to you.
Click to expand...

I'll do that. I thought I already did, but seems that they sold my email and I get 4-5 emails every week from a new options trading "guru." I really can't believe what's out there and feel sorry for the people falling for it. What you guys are doing here is really special.
 
I did build the back tester. At this point there is no coding to allow for adjustments. It is on my bucket list of things to do.
 
Paul Demers said:
Jack has a good point with doing shorter time frame butterflies. Using my automated back tester I found the following results doing an unbalanced butterfly ATM with 40/50 wings put on at 14DTE and taken off at 7DTE. There are 261 trades from the beginning of 2011 to June 23, 2017 using every 14DTE available.

View attachment 2507

There are no adjustments. The results are pretty good but there are several times with multiple losers in a row.
Click to expand...

186% from the comfort of your lazy boy trading once a week? It's possible with the Demerfly course coming soon. (actual results may vary) :)
 
Teddy said:
Anton Kreil makes interesting comments about retail brokers. Perhaps if we look at the broker agreements there might be something interesting in terms of incentives. He does make some interesting comments about educators.
Click to expand...

Teddy,

Thank you for the link. Good video. Two key take aways for me :

1. Never base your trading plan on high leverage, regardless how safe the trading plan might seem. Retail traders blow up accounts on average in 9 month, mostly due to leverage. This actually is my personal red line. Despite the fact that I could have earned substantially more money over the past many years by leveraging up with portfolio margin, but I think it's just not worth it. Brokers can change the terms of PM anytime without explanation. Leveraged strategies always look safe and properly hedged until they eventually blow up for reasons that cannot be predicted upfront. If smart money like LTCM run by geniuses can get caught, I'm not smart enough to avoid. This is a good reminder for me.

2. Each player in the industry has their own hidden agenda. Educators included. It's important that we understand what those are and we make our decisions with that in mind. Brokers will always want us to take the next trade in order to feed them commissions. Like wise educators will want us to take the next course and subscribe to the next service. These are not necessarily bad intentions and the product could very well be worth it, but we as retail traders must always keep in mind the underlying interests, which might not be obvious, when we receive marketing messages and make our decisions intelligently.
 
Luke said:
I'll do that. I thought I already did, but seems that they sold my email and I get 4-5 emails every week from a new options trading "guru."
Click to expand...

I don't think they pass the email addresses on the 3rd parties. It's common to rent an email list out. You pay a few thousand dollars to someone who has a list to send an email on your behalf from their email address. This is known as an email solo. Unfortunately for OptionVue, they have sent so many bad emails, they have likely poisoned their own list.
 
I looked at his YouTube video presentation which is only a "PLAN" so there is not much detail there but he does lay out the plan The plan has 3 different trades in it so at least it' not relying on one plan to make this work Unfortunately they are all ATM So as long as the market stays in this small range this should work I am not sure how it works if the market goes up but you get out in a week or less Is there going to be a gain or loss ? It's hard to calculate with multiple trades with different rates of decay and expirations

He starts out with a little more detail about one of the trades which is a 35/40 ATM BWB with 25 DTE and doing 8 contracts I simulated this trade today in TOS with the AUG 2 expiration 2460/2425/2385 and I am getting 8.35 debit so that is 6680 upside risk and 10680 on the downside The T+0 line looks like it can make $1100 in a week but he is only
assuming he can make $570 so it's not that outrageous and least he is not saying he can "guaranty" to make that much and and with 10 points higher it looks like about $500 On the downside there is more room to 2392 to make $569 so it's not a bad trade if the upside can be managed better As with most trades The call side is the hardest to make money on

He also has a RUT calendar 16/26 DTE and plans to make $205 with that and also an SPX iron condor with 16 DTE to make $225 All this to make an even $1000 Than about halfway through the Calendar explanation the the screen goes black with a message on it saying the " This video is an example of the education Sheridan does every day" Than it continues with the comparison between long term and short term trades

Out of that the BWB looks to me the most promising and makes most of the money the other 2 are just fill in trades to make the even $1000
 
The devil is always in the details. Anyone can claim to have a "plan" that makes a certain percentage every week month or year. But, big deal. I think the most important detail is proof of concept, real time. Lets see some results with real money in realtime. Has this "plan" been traded over the past year with a 20% per month gain? Has this plan been traded in realtime? While I see the benefit to using a backtrader, I honestly think to evaluate these earnings claims one would need to see results. (Obviously developing a plan that works in hindsight is one thing, a plan that works contemporaneously is altogether a different animal.) I am sure we can agree that just because a plan has worked for the past year is no guarantee that it will work going forward. The market is ever changing. But, with some hard data, and some real results we can evaluate the legitimacy of the ideas. But, without that type of real trading behind it, I think we can chock it up to what others have said above, just educators being educators. (CAVEAT EMPTOR!)
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top
Contact Us