I've spent this weekend on some of the most exciting research I've done on the Phoenix options strategy, and I wanted to share where things stand and where they're heading.
Background
Phoenix Trade Alerts are for options traders using the NQ futures signals as a directional bias to sell 0DTE SPX vertical credit spreads. The strategy has always shown strong results, but the historical analysis was based on estimates derived from futures MAE/MFE data rather than actual options prices.
That changes now.
The Research Database
I've built a local research database containing over 47 million SPX 1-minute option quotes with Greeks — bid, ask, delta, and IV for strikes within 150 points of ATM, every minute, from May 2022 to present. This represents every 0DTE SPXW expiration since daily SPX options began.
Combined with the full Phoenix NQ futures trade history, I can now simulate every options spread trade with minute-by-minute accuracy — walking through actual market prices and applying the exact exit rules in real time.
The Scale of This Weekend's Testing
Key Findings So Far
Always trade 2 contracts.
The two-contract scale-out contributes significantly to overall profitability. Contract 1 closes at the profit target locking in the win. Contract 2 rides toward expiration at zero risk with a breakeven stop — roughly 35% of the time it expires worthless, adding a full additional credit unit of profit.
Longer time stops are consistently better.
Giving the spread more time to work improves results across every parameter combination tested. The data clearly shows performance improving as time stop increases from 75 → 90 → 110 → 120 minutes. Theta decay is working for you — every extra minute is money in your pocket.
Futures flat = options flat.
The research surfaced an important trading rule that wasn't previously explicit: if Phoenix's futures position hits its stop loss, close any open options spreads immediately. Don't wait for the time stop. Phoenix can and often does fire a new signal shortly after a stop-out, and without this rule you could end up with overlapping positions. Keeping options 1:1 with the futures signal is cleaner and safer.
Overlap detection matters.
If Phoenix hits its profit target while an options spread is still open, skip any new incoming signal until the current spread closes. The simulation enforces this and it affects roughly 5-7% of trades. Prior estimates were slightly overstated because this wasn't being modeled.
Options stop losses are probably unnecessary.
Consistently across all testing, no stop loss on the options side outperforms 2x or 2.5x credit stop losses on net profit. The spread structure — delta probability, theta decay, directional signal — provides its own protection. A stop loss does modestly reduce max drawdown, but at too high a cost to overall profitability.
The Numbers
These are based on 1,638 trades from May 2022 through present — the period when daily 0DTE SPX options became available. The full Phoenix futures dataset goes back to January 2020, but options results are only measured from May 2022 when daily expirations began.
Once the overnight optimization finishes and I've identified the optimal parameter plateau, I'll be updating the Phoenix Trade Alerts course with real data replacing the previous estimates. The core methodology remains the same — the numbers just get sharper.
Automation — Two Platforms Coming
The most exciting development coming is full automated execution of the options strategy. Two integrations are in the works:
TradeAutomationToolbox (TAT) — Kyle and I have been working to connect Phoenix signals directly to automated spread execution. Entry, profit target, time stop, and C2 breakeven stop all handled automatically. This is actively in development and nearing completion.
Options Alpha — I'll be reaching out to the Options Alpha team this week to explore integration with their automation platform. Options Alpha has a well-established infrastructure for automated options trading and a large community of options-focused traders. Adding this as a second automation pathway means more flexibility for subscribers depending on their broker and preferred platform.
Once either or both automations are operational, subscribers won't need to be at their desk to trade the options strategy. The signal fires, the spread goes on, the exits manage themselves.
More details on both as they come together. This has been a genuinely exciting weekend of research.
Happy to answer questions below.
aeromir.com
Background
Phoenix Trade Alerts are for options traders using the NQ futures signals as a directional bias to sell 0DTE SPX vertical credit spreads. The strategy has always shown strong results, but the historical analysis was based on estimates derived from futures MAE/MFE data rather than actual options prices.
That changes now.
The Research Database
I've built a local research database containing over 47 million SPX 1-minute option quotes with Greeks — bid, ask, delta, and IV for strikes within 150 points of ATM, every minute, from May 2022 to present. This represents every 0DTE SPXW expiration since daily SPX options began.
Combined with the full Phoenix NQ futures trade history, I can now simulate every options spread trade with minute-by-minute accuracy — walking through actual market prices and applying the exact exit rules in real time.
The Scale of This Weekend's Testing
- Nearly 500,000 individual spread simulations Saturday
- 720 parameter combinations × 1,638 trades running overnight tonight
- Every simulation walks minute-by-minute through real option prices applying profit targets, time stops, C2 breakeven stops, and the new futures sync rules
Key Findings So Far
Always trade 2 contracts.
The two-contract scale-out contributes significantly to overall profitability. Contract 1 closes at the profit target locking in the win. Contract 2 rides toward expiration at zero risk with a breakeven stop — roughly 35% of the time it expires worthless, adding a full additional credit unit of profit.
Longer time stops are consistently better.
Giving the spread more time to work improves results across every parameter combination tested. The data clearly shows performance improving as time stop increases from 75 → 90 → 110 → 120 minutes. Theta decay is working for you — every extra minute is money in your pocket.
Futures flat = options flat.
The research surfaced an important trading rule that wasn't previously explicit: if Phoenix's futures position hits its stop loss, close any open options spreads immediately. Don't wait for the time stop. Phoenix can and often does fire a new signal shortly after a stop-out, and without this rule you could end up with overlapping positions. Keeping options 1:1 with the futures signal is cleaner and safer.
Overlap detection matters.
If Phoenix hits its profit target while an options spread is still open, skip any new incoming signal until the current spread closes. The simulation enforces this and it affects roughly 5-7% of trades. Prior estimates were slightly overstated because this wasn't being modeled.
Options stop losses are probably unnecessary.
Consistently across all testing, no stop loss on the options side outperforms 2x or 2.5x credit stop losses on net profit. The spread structure — delta probability, theta decay, directional signal — provides its own protection. A stop loss does modestly reduce max drawdown, but at too high a cost to overall profitability.
The Numbers
These are based on 1,638 trades from May 2022 through present — the period when daily 0DTE SPX options became available. The full Phoenix futures dataset goes back to January 2020, but options results are only measured from May 2022 when daily expirations began.
- Options win rate: 76%+ (exceeding the futures win rate)
- Net profit over dataset: $130K+
- Max drawdown: under $2,500
- Profit/Drawdown ratio: 55–80x
- C2 contracts expiring worthless: ~35% (course estimate was 42% — the real data is slightly lower)
- Sharpe ratio: ~7
Once the overnight optimization finishes and I've identified the optimal parameter plateau, I'll be updating the Phoenix Trade Alerts course with real data replacing the previous estimates. The core methodology remains the same — the numbers just get sharper.
Automation — Two Platforms Coming
The most exciting development coming is full automated execution of the options strategy. Two integrations are in the works:
TradeAutomationToolbox (TAT) — Kyle and I have been working to connect Phoenix signals directly to automated spread execution. Entry, profit target, time stop, and C2 breakeven stop all handled automatically. This is actively in development and nearing completion.
Options Alpha — I'll be reaching out to the Options Alpha team this week to explore integration with their automation platform. Options Alpha has a well-established infrastructure for automated options trading and a large community of options-focused traders. Adding this as a second automation pathway means more flexibility for subscribers depending on their broker and preferred platform.
Once either or both automations are operational, subscribers won't need to be at their desk to trade the options strategy. The signal fires, the spread goes on, the exits manage themselves.
More details on both as they come together. This has been a genuinely exciting weekend of research.
Happy to answer questions below.
Phoenix Trade Alerts - Futures Signals for SPX/SPY Options Traders | Aeromir
Get real-time Slack alerts when Phoenix enters and exits NQ and ES futures trades. 67% win rate, 6 years validated. Perfect for timing SPX/SPY directional spreads. Charter rate $99/month.
aeromir.com