SPY: Overnight Black Swan Waiting Time?

True, Dan. For others reading this that haven't been through a large smack down: the spreads do widen a lot during these periods. :eek:

Folks, I have attached hedging research performed by members of the Society of Actuaries. If you have seen this before, my apologies.

Never a truer word, johnyoga

Indeed, this great investors letter*** from Artemis Capital hits the nail on the head, including a nice reminder about Hari Krishnan's "Second Leg Down" book:

2nd leg down example.JPG

artemis cover.JPG

*** https://static1.squarespace.com/sta...s_Volatility+and+the+Alchemy+of+Risk_2017.pdf

Also, this flowchart in the document johnyoga attached is very handy too:

hedging schematic.JPG
 
After last week's volatility, I thought I'd add an interesting article to last years discussions that I stumbled upon, written by a retired investment advisor (bought his first stock in 1958!!) that discusses hedging (see below).

On another note, I'm not sure if anyone used the right hand "green box" shown above and had VIX options ahead of time....did they work out as planned?
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Summary

A lifetime of experience has told me that there is no really effective way to hedge actively against corrections or bear markets.
To expand upon this point of view, I look at implications of a hedge posed by Mad Hedge Fund Trader, a pretty reasonable and simple one.

The problem with hedges is their dependence upon timing and your opinion about when the market, even if overpriced, will correct. Taxes also don't help.
A comparison with active hedging gives cash an advantage and more flexibility in the more likely scenarios, and increasing cash returns narrow the comparison with stocks.

The only other alternative - especially for the young - is simply to buy and hold and ignore market events.

The elevated valuation of the stock market has clearly caused many investors to consider finding a way to hedge their portfolios, and this interest in hedging will undoubtedly grow as investors look at the effect of the recent sell-off on their portfolios. Caution at the present moment is understandable - and a calculated caution is always a good idea - but is there really an effective way to hedge?

source: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4143438-real-hedge-cash
 
Hedges are always a great idea. However, even if your teenie exploded with profit enough to keep your broken wing butterfly t+0 line above water , how much fun will it be trying to take that butterfly off for a reasonable price while the market is tanking and the fly is 80 points away ?
PS I trade BWB’s , and I also think about this
 
Hedges are always a great idea. However, even if your teenie exploded with profit enough to keep your broken wing butterfly t+0 line above water , how much fun will it be trying to take that butterfly off for a reasonable price while the market is tanking and the fly is 80 points away ?
PS I trade BWB’s , and I also think about this

The bid ask was ridiculous last week, pricing for my flies were all over the place. The teenie is there to brace for a gap down vol shock or market closing. I always have a back up plan for markets like last week which is essentially buying a vertical first and then a put (or multiple). Whether that is closing out a short leg of my fly or just buying a put or put spread. Anything more complicated than that is a nightmare to get filled.
 
I see. Do you run teenies on all your BWB’s?

It is always amazing to see how the price of the teenie explodes in a true vol spike.

I watched an April standard expiry 2-delta SPX 2200 (!!) put move from approx $2.65 at 15:30 Thurs 1st all the way up to approx $25.60 near the close on Monday 5th. That's pretty useful asymmetric price behavior....similar to what Tom mentioned in last week's TG2.
 
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