Jobless claim rose last week. If you have been following the SWP you already know that inflation is dramatically slowing in comodities and aggregate demand is cratering. The US is in a recession, europe is in a depression and The Fed is tightening. So why is the market rallying on bad news?
The models I use for the SWP/AWAKE have been picking up that bond yields are due to slow down or drop in the 3rd quarter and GDP is set to reaccelerate (good for stocks). I wanted to share this so that anyone that wants to dig in and find opportunites to short weak sectors or REITs, "yup I just said that", can in the 3rd quarter before the push down in Q4 2022 and Q1 2023.
Lets all enjoy the rally/ "not crashing" as the pace at which the economy slows decelerates. Perhaps we will even get a pivot in the Fed to really juice this thing up!
I would love to hear what your thoughts are about the overall economy and the direction of the global macro landscape as a reply to this thread. I esspecially am intersted in opposing views. Lets all have a great conversation about the wild things that are happening!
