Masks

[Ignatz]

If the mask was such a good idea why not order it when there was only a few cases ?

exactly. They still discussed about "freedom " or wearing a mask ? Didn´t look to Italy or Spain where you can see what´s dramatically going on ?
they missed the chance of early testing. Then the wave came and also the mask. Result: Numbers went down dramatically after a while but numbers of deaths were already high. Same situaion as in Italy and Spain.
But IF you know, what can happen, why does it happen now the same way in Florida, Arizona, Texas etc. ? It´s one thing to act when you don´t know much about the virus and all the consequences.
But knowing what will happen and do nothing or even ignore is reckless.

 

[status1]

But knowing what will happen and do nothing or even ignore is reckless.

I would say knowing what works and telling people something else is reckless
Telling people to just wear a cheap mask and you are safe is what is wreckless

I read that there are some increases in Germany as well
"But while overall numbers remain low, daily figures are slightly increasing. The Robert Koch Institute recorded 534 cases on Thursday, the highest amount so far in July, while the transmission rate of the virus has climbed above the key threshold of 1.0, to 1.10. "
How is that possible when everyone is wearing the mask ?

"Meanwhile, the first results of a study by Germany's infectious diseases agency on antibodies against COVID-19 among blood donors has shown a low immunity and suggests most Germans have not had contact with the virus. "
"Therefore, we need to be aware and not think, well, we are through with this until more and more people over many years become infected or a vaccination becomes available."
Sounds like you will need to wear the mask for many years
Good luck with that

 

[Ignatz]

just tell me one thing: how did Italy, Spain, Germany, France etc. succeed in getting the numbers low and most important KEEP numbers as low as possible ? And no one said down to zero, which is impossible at the moment.
praying ? vodoo ? miracle ? do nothing ? telling fairytales like: it´s just a flu ?
RKI: Summary (as of 18/07/2020 12:00 AM)
• The cumulative nationwide incidence over the past 7 days was 3.1 cases per 100,000 inhabitants and thus increased slightly at a low level. A total of 105 districts transmitted zero cases. Moreover, in 240 districts the 7-day-incidence is below 5,0/100,000 inhabitants.
• In total, 201,372 laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases and 9,083 deaths due to COVID-19 have been electronically reported to the RKI in Germany.
• Currently, COVID-19-related outbreaks occur in various settings, including meat-processing plants, facilities for asylum-seekers and refugees, nursing homes and hospitals as well as in context of families or religious events.

Is it a serious/manageable problem to have 534 cases or more than 60,000 ?

Sounds like you will need to wear the mask for many years

we will do where/when it´s neccessary. Where´s the problem ? you don´t ?
we have about 200,000 infections. US: 3,676,942
deaths: 9,083 US: 139,748
some day there will be a vaccine. may be in 3 months, may be in one year, may be in many years.
We don´t tell lies, fake news or fairytales. We face the reality. We act appropriate.

most Germans have not had contact with the virus

that´s the best thing what can happen in this situation. Where´s the problem ?
We protect population as good as possible.

3.1 cases per 100,000 inhabitants over the past 7 days in germany. 80 mio -> 248
IF (!) same in US would be: about 1,000. reality: nearly half a million.

I would say knowing what works and telling people something else is reckless

Don´t go walking on thin ice
i would say: IF you might know what works because specialists tell you what should work (based on information available) and then you get the numbers as low as possible you can say: it works.

Telling people to just wear a cheap mask and you are safe

who said that ?
social distancing, washing hands, wearing mask where necessary and corona app work as a combined stategy, not 100 % but pretty well. that´s a fact. Or any doubt about that ?

 

[status1]

just tell me one thing: how did Italy, Spain, Germany, France etc. succeed in getting the numbers low and most important KEEP numbers as low as possible ?

As far as I know that was because of the lockdown
I did not hear anything about forcing people to wear a mask untill just recently when the numbers started to go up again

For some reason you are somehow are trying to link the low numbers to people wearing a mask when there is no evidence of any correlation

who said that ?
social distancing, washing hands, wearing mask where necessary

and who decides where necesary ? certainly not the public
It's the so called "official" who does not want to be the one to decide where it is necessary so they throw out a blanket statement to cover everything so in case something goes wrong they are not held responsible and the people will keep voting for them

 

[Ignatz]

As far as I know that was because of the lockdown

There was no big lockdown in germany. You were still allowed to go to work, go to supermarket, can go outside but only meet with one more person at the beginning, (now much more person allowed) other shops were closed, same for barber shops etc. no swimming, no football, no cinema, concerts etc.
At the beginning no masks because there simply were not enough masks available. (look what happened with sold out toilet papers etc.)
But as soon as available and some more sound research you have to wear a (selfmade) mask. Jena was the first town, who told all persons to wear a mask and no infections in that town.
social distancing, washing hands, wearing mask where necessary and (later on) corona app work as a combined stategy and there is definitely a evidence of correlation. Look at RKI.
One example ? some hotspots occured when a choir had a rehearsal. They didn´t wear masks but made desinfections, washing hands, no shake hands, keeping the distance of more than 1,5 meters as it was adviced etc. Many people got infected. Same in a church. This is only one example of many more events like this.
So don´t tell me there is no evidence or correlation. Reality tells you another story.

who decides where necesary ? certainly not the public

of course not the public. On what basis should they make a decision ? looks nice ? feels nice ? not comfortable ? doesn´t fit my life style ? just a flu ?
they don´t have the specialized knowledge, made scientific research, read all the preprints and peer viewed articles. Our politicans trust in sound knowledge of experts (virologists, doctors, social experts, economic specialists etc ). And it was not the badest advice. Again: look at the numbers.
it´s not comfortable wearing a mask but you get used to it. Really not a big deal and is that worth a big discussion ?
"just do it" is now more like "just discuss it " ????

the politicians made a clear statement at the beginning: we trust in sound knowledge of experts of different faculties. We don´t have any experience with a pandemic and have to drive attentively. As soon as we get more knowledge of the virus we might make it possible for allowing more things but at the moment we have to be very careful.
A clear and reliable statement. And people trust it. One more reason for trusting this announcement were all the pictures and stories you can see in the news from italy and spain.

 

[status1]

So this is the evidence that everyone is supposed to rely on ? Some circumstantial evidence ?
The thory is that since the mask were mandated in Jena there were no more infections It's just a numbers game That is not evidence that the mask is doing anything It's an assumtion that since the numbers are low it must have been the mask
April 6 was after the peak of the infection so the infection rate was already coming down There is also this
" Germany – which has been less affected by the pandemic than neighboring countries "
It could also be that since they mandated the mask people in Jena took it more seriously and distanced or did not go out much after the announcement making it seem like the mask was doing something
There is no mention on what kind of face mask was used or if it was used properly
"The daily growth rates in the number of infections when face masks were introduced was around 2 to 3%. These are very low growth rates compared to the early days of the epidemic in Germany, where daily growth rates also lay above 50%"

" We simultaneously stress the need for more detailed analyses. First, Germany is only one country. Different norms or climatic conditions might change the picture for other countries. Second, we have ignored spatial dependencies in the epidemic diffusion of Covid-19. This might play a role. Third, there are various types of face masks. We cannot identify differential effects since mask regulations in German regions do not require a certain type. This calls for further systematic causal analyses of the different health measure implemented to fight the spread of Covid-19 "

The bottom line is that this is just circumstantial evidence This is not evidence that show that wearing the mask wil prevent the spread of the virus

Sorry I just don't buy it
Is there any other evidence or is this the only one ?

 

[Ignatz]

on friday 242 new infections in germany
US: 71,484
you sure have a plan to avoid an infection. the problem: you don´t know IF you are infected.
social distancing in enclosed rooms like supermarkets etc. doesn´t help much every serious Virologist will tell you. (aerosole)
But i am sure you will find one, who knows it better.
meanwhile the numbers are getting higher and higher.

 

[Ignatz]

Trump administration pushing to block new money for testing, tracing and CDC in upcoming coronavirus relief bill
no testing no infections. Strategy for ......

 

[status1]

I am sorry but that is not evidence that the mask is doing anything
You are trying to compare 2 vastly different size countries and make it seem like if it worked in Germany it must work over here also and if everyone would have worn the mask we would not see any increase in cases That is a wrong assumtion
I would say more to the contrary. I am sure a lot of people were wearing a mask of some sort and despite that we still have increases in cases so that means that the mask is not doing anything

 

[Ignatz]

what is your plan not to get infected ?

 

[status1]

If you are asking for myself I plan to stay at home and only go out when neccessary I don't go to parties or ride the subway, buss , train or go into any crowded area
I go food shopping on the weekend I put on a mask when inside the store not because it does anything but because I was going inside for a few weeks early on without a mask and than one day the store manager gave me a mask to put on and I am still using the same mask and even so I just use it to cover the mouth so I am free to breathe through the nose so the mask is totaly useless and it's just for show It just looks like I am wearing a mask to comply with the rules but effectively I am not using the mask and so far I did not get the virus and it's not because the other people were wearing the mask it's because I don't live in a hot spot and social distancing is possible in the store

But I am guessing you were probably asking what is my plan for the entire country
Obviously I am not the one to ask about the entire country I only have my opinion so I am sure there are other opinions as well
First of all there should not be one order for the entire country Each state is different with different total population and different density
So an order for a state with a large population and density would be inapplicable in another state where the population is low and more spread out and the opposite is not good either

Second. Explain the situation to the people and don't lie to them Tell them why the lockdown is neccesary in a dense area and don't lock down areas where it is not dense and lie to them that you are locking down because there is a hot spot in another state thousands of miles away because that just lost your credibility and anything else you may say could be another suspected lie
The original intent for the lockdown was to flatten the curve not to stop the spread of the virus

Third. About the mask. It would have been more helpfull if Dr Fauci did not send out false messages thereby loosing credibility
At the beginning he said that healthy people do not need to wear the mask I am guessing that was not based on any scientifc fact it was just his opinion at the time Than later on said everyone should wear the mask again probably not based on fact just changed his opinion Than the so called "leaders" take that and order everyone to wear the mask first when social distancing is not possible than ignoring that part or businesses going a step further to show that they are complying or to avoid facing a fine so they order their customers to wear the mask at all times regardless of the distance There is no scientific evidence behind that it's just a regulation that they came up with to make everyone "feel safe" or "feel better"

So this is why we are discussing this When you lie so many times it's hard to know what the truth is
Showing increasing number of infections is not evidence that no one is wearing the mask and that more mask wearing is neccesary

If the intent was to stop the spread or slow it down in my opinion they should have been honest with the people from the begining and not keep changing their opinion
They should have said that this is a contagious virus and should stay away from other people as much as possible and if you need to get close wear an N95 mask properly especially if you are elderly and have an underlying condition
Don't tell them that you don't need a mask or to make a cheap one to save the N95 for the hospitals than later on change your mind and force everyone to wear the mask all the time because no one will believe you and no one will take the wearing of the mask seriously so I believe that is why the numbers are up now because the wearing of the mask is just a joke wearing it haphazardly and using cheap masks in hot spots

 

[Ignatz]

it is a new virus with an important difference to known corona virus, This was unknown at the beginning and that´s why they said: no mask. by more research they found out, that this virus is spreading much more because sitting in the mouth and nose and not in the lungs like others.
that´s how science works. always based on known knowledge until you know better by new results and more experience. That´s exactly what they did.
you are right: a lockdown with no infections arounf makes no sense. BUT: on condition of much testing testing testing. AFAIK there is no help from the "leader". very sad.

 

[status1]

Here is what I mean by another misleading headline today https://abc7ny.com/health/covid-ny-dr-fauci-says-new-york-did-it-correctly/6324584/
What are we supposed to take from that ?
It does not say anything about a mask
With the highest number of deaths in the country we are supposed to believe that this is the way to do it ?
If that is the curve we have to follow we need more parties and crowded subways and busses all over the country
There was no flatening of the curve for NY if you look at the curve you see it go up and then come down that is the opposite of flatening of the curve The mask was imposed on April 15th after the curve was going down so by that time the damage was already done if you even believe that the mask would have been effective

If you look at Florida the line is flat until recently I believe because of the Memorial day and 4th of July celebrations that people got together and the numbers went up It was not because people were not wearing the mask in the store

 

[Ignatz]

Fauci: the key to containing the virus is to get the tests in the right place at the right time.
the only bad thing in New York was: bad or to less tests available and much too late. Because by only looking to Italy you know what can happen. But it was ignored.

 

[status1]

Ok. So how is that a good thing to say that NY did it correctly ?