It's been a while now and although we have learned quite a bit, there is still so much we don't know about the virus and especially the disease. There are significant differences from prior coronavirus episodes especially the ability of the virus to transmit prior to symptom appearance. The virus is more contagious but less lethal that SARS or MERS. The disease takes multiple paths ranging from asymptomatic infection to serious influenza type infection. In addition the disease sometimes progresses to severe over reaction of the immune system resulting in inflammatory damage to multiple organ systems and, in the worst cases, death. Serology tests for antibodies reveal that less than 20% of the population in NYC has been exposed already and the percentage in the rest of the country is much less. This means that the overwhelming portion of the population is still vulnerable. The paradox of bending the curve is that while cases are reduced now, without a vaccine the pandemic goes on much longer because the same number of people get the virus over a longer period of time. From what I can tell looking at the facts available now there is a good chance the final death toll will be much higher as the rest of the population is gradually exposed to the virus until the required 60-80% of the population acquires antibodies to confer herd immunity. Any vaccine is many months away. Even if an effective vaccine is developed now it will take time to produce and to actually administer to 300 million plus people under proper precautions.
Some practical advice re Coronavirus
- Thread starter Marcas
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Andrew, I also keep tracking of going on. This statement is true on second part and probably true on first one. Main difference in from prior flue episodes is our response.
Also truth is that population is way underexposed to virus. This is due to lock-down. In such situation herd immunity development is heavily suppressed and ensures long time of virus activity in society. Herd immunity is the way nature dealed with diseases for years and it worked - we are still here, on Earth. If we have no lock down and media coverage we'd probably be talking now about new baseball season.
If you remember the reason for lock down was to 'flatten the curve'. Well, it appears it wasn't necessary after all but lock down stays in place, just reasoning changed (regardless if it makes sense or not). This only prevents society from developing virus resistance and keeps people in fear.
You can not believe public statistics. You simply can't. CDC officially encourages to blow up numbers of 'covid deaths' on their pages, White House admits that counting of deaths is very 'liberal' (think about what it means). I can tell you more reasons and methods, and testimonies, how numbers are manipulated. Data released about week ago in Italy shows that their 'scary' numbers were 91% wrong, there were movement in parliament over this issue (I'm not sure if this was covered in our media). Just take a moment to think about what does that means. Yet, even if numbers indicating severity of covid are known to be 'inaccurate', they are still used to sustain fear. In your post there is contradiction many people have no problem with (why is that?). You say rate of deaths is lower than in flue. Later you said 'I can tell looking at the facts available now there is a good chance the final death toll will be much higher'. How so? This can only be done by manipulating statistics.
Now, if you turn propaganda off and look at data alone you must be amazed by persistent hysteria. Covid is less deadly than flue. We should seek the biggest number of cases because the faster population becomes immune the faster epidemic dies off. Yet we are suppose to fear new, ever bigger number of 'cases'. How can you justify the lock down without emotional arguments? You can't.
Vaccines. I think this is real goal of fear mongering, to justify introduction of forced vaccination. Unfortunately people do not realize what does it mean and why it is so important point. If you are interested please do some research. Data and facts are still to be found although, I expect, not for much longer. Bigger media already censoring and I heard of some cases where publicizing facts or even questions about vaccination, are, or are proposed to be, an criminal offense.
On the other hand, maybe it is better not to know.
I said the virus is less lethal than SARS or MERS not influenza. It is clearly worse than seasonal influenza both in transmissibility and lethality. I know there is strong incentive to count institutional deaths as COVID-19 in many places but it is also likely outside deaths are being missed. As of today 70 thousand plus deaths from the virus infecting less than 10% of the population. Even if that is an overcount it is still a frightening insight to what will happen while we reach herd immunity.
No, it is not.
What sources are you using to get that clarity?
As you mentioned, there is strong incentive to increase covid's death numbers, also financial one - some federal funds for victims of covid, I do not know any details.
Why do you say is likely that outside(?) deaths are missed? If somebody fall from the roof and wasn't tested and death certificate says death was due to injuries from the fall. If then dead body was tested positive (again, tests are not reliable, tending to give false positive results) it would be another covid number. So, to change cause of death en mass corpses need to be tested or by new regulations introduced. Then number can be higher. What else can cause revision up to be meaningful? Presently, by guidance of CDC, if cause of death is uncertain, coivid is fine to be 'diagnosed', so any nubers are likely overstaed. What do I miss?
Both numbers are dubious.
If you look at total number of deaths in US, regardless of case, this number didn't go up. Here is a link I found but I've seen better data saying the same but can't find it.
www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/death-rate
The only explanation in your favor of the fact that total number of deaths did not spike, is that Americans suddenly, somehow became very healthy and if not for covid we would have huge deaths drop.
Without that assumption you can conclude that many deaths that went to covid deaths number would occur anyway.
There are testimonies of hospital personnel indicating that indeed this is what's happening.
Number of deaths is perceived as 'scary' because people do not look at those numbers every day and when they do, they think of death and are uneasy, and want this reality to go away, and support, or at least, 'understand' and don't oppose any treachery that is provided in the name to make them 'save'.
Andrew, one of us is wrong. I don't have intention to convince you. Maybe there is some 'common ground' but I don't desire to find it neither. My goal is to induce critical thinking. Not necessary in you personally, because I don't suppose you need it.
Correction. Link I provided is wrong. I did it in hurry and didn't read the full page before quoting.
It says
So, this evidence should be dismissed.
Sorry for confusion. If necessary I will try to find link with actual data, which, if I remember correctly, gave similar picture. It was a while ago and I didn't bookmark it.
As a substitute I attach link to The Washington Times that popped up on my radar screen today and which seems to be 'on my side'.
You don't have to agree but, please, argument with facts or reason (if you wish to argue).
www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/apr/28/covid-19-turning-out-to-be-huge-hoax-perpetrated-b/
It says
So, this evidence should be dismissed.
Sorry for confusion. If necessary I will try to find link with actual data, which, if I remember correctly, gave similar picture. It was a while ago and I didn't bookmark it.
As a substitute I attach link to The Washington Times that popped up on my radar screen today and which seems to be 'on my side'.
You don't have to agree but, please, argument with facts or reason (if you wish to argue).
www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/apr/28/covid-19-turning-out-to-be-huge-hoax-perpetrated-b/
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The Rnaught of seasonal influenza is around 1.2 while this corona virus seems to be between 2 and 3. It's impossible to know the infection fatality rate since we don't know the denominator for COVID-19 or for that matter seasonal flu. The case fatality rate for COVID-19 is between .5 and 1% much higher than seasonal influenza. COVID-19 is also doing things no influenza virus has done like causing non pulmonary organ failure and embolisms. As for Joseph Curl, comparing the number of deaths between a finished flu season and an ongoing pandemic is so egregious that I will not say anything more.