Update Schwalbe trade

Ignatz

New member
my current trade, still 7 weeks until expiration, already realized 90 % of profit, already reduced risk by 80 %
Data for 4 tranches: at the beginning: profit/risk 1360/2640, SPAN Margin at about 1.400 No fat tail risk.
now: profit/risk 1470/530 Margin at nearly zero. Bought back the sold vertical ($8) for $ 0.8
Risk of 530 starts now below 2300, more than 500 points (20%) lower ! No fat tail risk.
I let the trade expire without paying commissions at the end.


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Ignatz

New member
your bridge over troubled water:

my livetrades since Sept 19 incl commission !
System started in sept 19 when spy was at 298.
we had a drop of 35 % in Feb
now still more than 5 % below
i am up $ 278 for 1 tranche (traded 4 of them)
profit / max risk about 42 % now
profit to max margin (current trade) estimated above 90 %

a system, very resilent against volatility spikes, no fat tail risk,
live trades to backtests: proofed and confirmed by reality.

next trade starts on monday June 22.

Livetrade Stand Mai 2020.PNG
 

Ignatz

New member
new Adjustment: nearly no more risk now, lower expiration line at $ -40 about 650 points (!) lower. Profit at 1460 for 4 tranches (minus comm). lowest Point +- 12 % (Max Margin ? ) for one tranche for this trade was at about $ -300.
Next trade starts on monday, June 22nd. Subscription is open now. $ 199 for the next trade (Price per quarter ! until Sept 18th 2020). History will be updated soon.

Screenshot 2020-05-20 14.35.36.png
 

RandyR

New member
It looks like your T+0 line is above your UEL. Why not close the trade out completely and remove all the risk and capture more profit than waiting until expiration?
 

Ignatz

New member
in TOS the t+0 is sometimes jumping around. It´s fantasy. Closing the trade will be now more expensive than let the trade expire. For the butterfly commissions are higher than the price you will get. Buying back the verticals will lower profit line. The trade is more than 600 points away from the verticals and 4 weeks left. I wait for just 10 cents for the verticals to buy them back, now at 20 cents.
 

RandyR

New member
In this current trade (MAR-JUN), how did you adjust to bring your UEL and MEL up since price never moved below the entry? Were those discretionary adjustments?
 

Ignatz

New member
i sold another vertical when price was very far away from entry ( > 20 %) and after a while i bought back the first sold vertical for 90 % "rebate". Finally i also bought back one of 4 verticals for 85 % to move UEL and MEL near zero. This was discretionary because a situation like this does not happen often but offered a good opportunity. Always try to reduce risk for a reasonable price.
 

Ignatz

New member
last limits were filled, no more risk for the last 4 weeks :cool: seling butterflies does not make sense, commissions higher than profit. let is expire.



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