Update Schwalbe trade

Ignatz

Member
my current trade, still 7 weeks until expiration, already realized 90 % of profit, already reduced risk by 80 %
Data for 4 tranches: at the beginning: profit/risk 1360/2640, SPAN Margin at about 1.400 No fat tail risk.
now: profit/risk 1470/530 Margin at nearly zero. Bought back the sold vertical ($8) for $ 0.8
Risk of 530 starts now below 2300, more than 500 points (20%) lower ! No fat tail risk.
I let the trade expire without paying commissions at the end.


Screenshot 2020-05-02 12.56.18.png
 

Ignatz

Member
your bridge over troubled water:

my livetrades since Sept 19 incl commission !
System started in sept 19 when spy was at 298.
we had a drop of 35 % in Feb
now still more than 5 % below
i am up $ 278 for 1 tranche (traded 4 of them)
profit / max risk about 42 % now
profit to max margin (current trade) estimated above 90 %

a system, very resilent against volatility spikes, no fat tail risk,
live trades to backtests: proofed and confirmed by reality.

next trade starts on monday June 22.

Livetrade Stand Mai 2020.PNG
 

Ignatz

Member
new Adjustment: nearly no more risk now, lower expiration line at $ -40 about 650 points (!) lower. Profit at 1460 for 4 tranches (minus comm). lowest Point +- 12 % (Max Margin ? ) for one tranche for this trade was at about $ -300.
Next trade starts on monday, June 22nd. Subscription is open now. $ 199 for the next trade (Price per quarter ! until Sept 18th 2020). History will be updated soon.

Screenshot 2020-05-20 14.35.36.png
 

RandyR

New member
It looks like your T+0 line is above your UEL. Why not close the trade out completely and remove all the risk and capture more profit than waiting until expiration?
 

Ignatz

Member
in TOS the t+0 is sometimes jumping around. It´s fantasy. Closing the trade will be now more expensive than let the trade expire. For the butterfly commissions are higher than the price you will get. Buying back the verticals will lower profit line. The trade is more than 600 points away from the verticals and 4 weeks left. I wait for just 10 cents for the verticals to buy them back, now at 20 cents.
 

RandyR

New member
In this current trade (MAR-JUN), how did you adjust to bring your UEL and MEL up since price never moved below the entry? Were those discretionary adjustments?
 

Ignatz

Member
i sold another vertical when price was very far away from entry ( > 20 %) and after a while i bought back the first sold vertical for 90 % "rebate". Finally i also bought back one of 4 verticals for 85 % to move UEL and MEL near zero. This was discretionary because a situation like this does not happen often but offered a good opportunity. Always try to reduce risk for a reasonable price.
 

Ignatz

Member
last limits were filled, no more risk for the last 4 weeks :cool: selling butterflies does not make sense, commissions higher than profit. let is expire.



Screenshot 2020-05-25 18.33.21.png
 

Ignatz

Member
My trade will expire on Friday with a nice profit, for 4 tranches. Initial risk was 2640, my max risk was 4370 but more than about 30 % (!) away from current price and only for some days (April15 to 28) and only below 2290, above it was only 370. After new adjustment 530 and finally since May 26 no risk at all for nearly 4 weeks with an expirationline at plus 1440. (commissions not included).
Never had a fat tail risk.
in relation to the max risk of this trade it´s a profit of 32,95 % in 3 months. Planned capital per tranche (very conservative): 5k. performance 7,2 %.
only 3 adjustments were done,
expiration without any commissions on my account
new trade starts on MONDAY 22nd.
Join now for $199 (quarterly price) until Sept 18th.
 

Ignatz

Member
on friday my trade expired with a nice profit and without paying any commission. not a too big profit but no stress at all.
Today i start my new trade end of day.
when i enter the trade i know all my adjustment levels right from the beginning.
If you want to join hurry up
$199 quarterly price.
 

Ignatz

Member
the new trade started and some nice adjustments were made. UEL (upper expiration line) for one tranche was at the beginning at 282,5
MEL (middle expiration line, sea of death) at -717,5, same for LEL
now UEL at 682,5 plus 142 %
MEL at -317, minus 55 %
LEL at -1817,
 
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