Update Schwalbe trade

Ignatz

Member
from Dez 2014 until Sept 2019 there were a lot of drawdown, like down to 20 % in Oct 18.
the lowest peak EoD of a trade was at $-315.
the badest trade however was $ -178 . And not every trade ended in a loss, when a DD occured. It can also have a little profit. Just do the right adjustments at the right time. AND DON`T ADD MONEY TO TRADE.
 

status1

Member
the argument about negative theta: do i look for the time when the trade begins or when it will expire ? How big is the probability of a trade being at the same level after 3 Months ? looks like zero.
and if you roll a PCS: Do you have to add some money for this adjustment ?
It's true that the probability of the trade being at the same level is very low I was just making an observation that the trade will be in a negative state situation until the sea of death is eliminated or the trade expires
As far as the PCS I always try to roll for a credit and I do have cash on the side to make the same trade again
I trade on a weekly basis and I only lost once last year in the Oct selloff and that was only because I was trying not to roll I almost made i too It just went below my short strike in the last few minutes of trading but I made it all back within a few weeks
 

Chuck Moore

New member
Hi status1
I understand you were giving your opinion and I was adding my thoughts as a counter which is what this forum is all about. My oldest trade which is almost 4 weeks old has positive Vega for 125 points to the downside and with only $400 at risk until the A Fly which is 2.5 standard deviations away from ATM. It is currently up $500 and I've reduced the sea of death by 60% so I will most likely be able to make money in either direction. Any big move down will actually help the trade. That's one of the strengths of the trade, no Fat Tail Risk. My other trades are in a similar state.
 

Ignatz

Member
well done Chuck. You might save some money if you don´t reduce the sea of death so early. if you have such a tight V you don´t have any trouble until the last 2-3 weeks. And when price is going up or down far from V you can save money and raise profits
 

Chuck Moore

New member
Thanks Igi. I appreciate your feedback and your generosity in sharing your strategy. I addressed the V earlier because my trades are not for 90 days but for 53 days so I only have about 2 weeks before the 14DTE when the V starts to sag, but your point is taken. I will probably wait until closer to 14DTE to address the remaining V since time decay will make them much less expensive (barring any crazy moves). I have several trades on so I'm going to try different adjustment approaches as I get more experience going forward and will keep your advice in mind. I also have a couple of other "tweaks" that I've added that I'll share after I see how they effect the trade. Thanks again.
 

Ignatz

Member
BLACK FRIDAY OFFER
here my offer, valid until next Monday 30 min after the meeting:
until March 20th 2020 for $ 111 instead $ 147
 

Simon

Member
Dam I should not have been so eager, Black Friday. What about Cyber Monday, will it be even cheaper? A little cheeky especially when next live trade not until Dec 23rd!
 
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