Update Schwalbe trade

  • Thread starter Thread starter Ignatz
  • Start date Start date
from Dez 2014 until Sept 2019 there were a lot of drawdown, like down to 20 % in Oct 18.
the lowest peak EoD of a trade was at $-315.
the badest trade however was $ -178 . And not every trade ended in a loss, when a DD occured. It can also have a little profit. Just do the right adjustments at the right time. AND DON`T ADD MONEY TO TRADE.
 
Ignatz said:
the argument about negative theta: do i look for the time when the trade begins or when it will expire ? How big is the probability of a trade being at the same level after 3 Months ? looks like zero.
and if you roll a PCS: Do you have to add some money for this adjustment ?
Click to expand...

It's true that the probability of the trade being at the same level is very low I was just making an observation that the trade will be in a negative state situation until the sea of death is eliminated or the trade expires
As far as the PCS I always try to roll for a credit and I do have cash on the side to make the same trade again
I trade on a weekly basis and I only lost once last year in the Oct selloff and that was only because I was trying not to roll I almost made i too It just went below my short strike in the last few minutes of trading but I made it all back within a few weeks
 
Hi status1
I understand you were giving your opinion and I was adding my thoughts as a counter which is what this forum is all about. My oldest trade which is almost 4 weeks old has positive Vega for 125 points to the downside and with only $400 at risk until the A Fly which is 2.5 standard deviations away from ATM. It is currently up $500 and I've reduced the sea of death by 60% so I will most likely be able to make money in either direction. Any big move down will actually help the trade. That's one of the strengths of the trade, no Fat Tail Risk. My other trades are in a similar state.
 
well done Chuck. You might save some money if you don´t reduce the sea of death so early. if you have such a tight V you don´t have any trouble until the last 2-3 weeks. And when price is going up or down far from V you can save money and raise profits
 
Thanks Igi. I appreciate your feedback and your generosity in sharing your strategy. I addressed the V earlier because my trades are not for 90 days but for 53 days so I only have about 2 weeks before the 14DTE when the V starts to sag, but your point is taken. I will probably wait until closer to 14DTE to address the remaining V since time decay will make them much less expensive (barring any crazy moves). I have several trades on so I'm going to try different adjustment approaches as I get more experience going forward and will keep your advice in mind. I also have a couple of other "tweaks" that I've added that I'll share after I see how they effect the trade. Thanks again.
 
the final version: better performance, less risk :cool: more infos in the monday meeting30 breit V u K.PNG
 
BLACK FRIDAY OFFER
here my offer, valid until next Monday 30 min after the meeting:
until March 20th 2020 for $ 111 instead $ 147
 
Dam I should not have been so eager, Black Friday. What about Cyber Monday, will it be even cheaper? A little cheeky especially when next live trade not until Dec 23rd!
 
Screenshot 2019-12-06 22.24.21.png

if it´s going up or down i don´t care anymore. I let it expire on Friday 20 th Dec. with a nice profit and on Monday i start the new one.
 
here the analysis of the final Schwalbe version, backtest made with option net explorer.
this final version will start on Monday, Dec 23rd. 2019
Don´t miss the start.
Schwalbe Vers 4 final Side 1.PNG
 
Schwalbe Vers 4 final Asset comparison.PNG

more details in the mondaymeeting

this analysis was made by a swiss agency
 
by the way: In the new version margin will be much lower most of the time
one more reason to join for the start on Monday 23rd of december :cool:
 
and the current Emini trade sept-dec also has no margin anymore until the end
 
this is my real trade emini sept- dec 2019 on IB including commission, which is still running in the old version and will be closed in 8 days

Emin real trade Sept-Dec 19 old version.PNG
 
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and this is the hypothetical trade, when using the modifications, which are already integrated in the new version: less bought puts and selling puts later for a better price and buying back for 50 %. Also all including commissions at IB. But this version still have the wider wings which are tighter in the new version. All based on real IB-data

Emini trade Sept-Dec 19 new version hypothetical, based on real IB-Data.PNG
 
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